Yeah probably one of the 5% of hands I would consider just folding vs him.
I would defenitly cbet here. You flopped two pair, it’s unlikely he has something better on this board so just bet for value against straightdraws/flushdraws/ace- high/overcards/low pocket pairs. Vs some opponents you can check back because they will autostab turn, but against this guy, I wouldn’t count on it since he doesn’t seem to stabbing when he didn’t hit anyway. So only way some money is going to go in on turn/river if he hit something better (like JT and a J pops up on turn). It’s going to be pretty rare like in this case that he’s going to turn a flushdraw (or straightdraw sometimes) and that’s going to c/c it again. Just bet flop, take it down and be done with the hand.
I know this sounds like “bet for protection” against this kind of opponent and betting for protection in general is a stupid reason to bet, but you can take down the pot and there’s actually some worse hands he can call here with. It’s also good info if he c/c’s with – say – A3o and checks it down unimproved. Or he just calls with a flushdraw on flop and doesnt bluff river (something I expect him to do, not bluff very much, but we can’t be sure of that just yet in a raised pot.
Hmmmz, really weird here imo. So far he seems to be pretty “passive” preflop and nitty too, so I think indeed his raising range is quite strong. However, I think I would still defend, just because we’re not doing that miserable againts a decent amount of his hands and he’s just so easy postflop to play. He doesn’t seem to bluff, and even if he does know the concept of cbetting I doubt he’s going to double barrel a lot unless he has a real hand. I don’t mind a fold preflop because he’s kind of nitty, but calling looks better given how he plays post.
Ok, 2.5bb’s is good, again not going to go deeper into raise sizing preflop but I think the shallower you get indeed, the smaller you should raise and from 40bb’s I think indeed 3bb’s is a bit too big so I would either minraise or make it t75 here as well.
Then, he clicks it back, hmmmz. Ehm, you’re getting 3 to 1 on your money here, I don’t expect you to have the best hand here a lot but odds are just to good given the way he plays postflop. As far as I’m concerned, I’d try and play as much pots as possible vs this guy because he doesn’t seem to tricky, and that includes calling preflop here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he has a hand like KQ, will check/call it on a 358cc board, and check down the rest of the hand when the board runs out Ax turn and 6x river. 3-1 is decent enough odds to call with a lot of holdings in position vs this villain.
Given that you checked all limped pots to him so far I would lead out here and I think he’ll give you at least some credit for it. If you would’ve lead out a couple of times already I think c/f’ing this board would be best just to keep him passive/honest and to show that you don’t try to win every pot but you haven’t lead out a single time on flop so I would do it here.
Hero wins t270
Wow, I really didn’t expect any fold equity here with your raise. Or at least very little. I know his betsizing makes him look weak (and he will be weakish a decent percentage of the time), but I just don’t think you can make him fold with an extra 90, he will be getting good odds, and we don’t even beat a hand like K4o here. He just seemed too fit/fold in previous hand to try and go for a cheap bluff here.
I would just fold vs his donkbet tbh, just let him win this pot here, so he will give some respect if we raise next time when he leads. If you DO decide to bluffraise here, I would make it sligthly bigger, 180 or 190 or something, to try and maximize fold equity on the flop since we rarely have showdown value here after getting called here.
Ehm, given that you haven’t raised so far vs his limps preflop, I think this is a good spot since he will fold a decent percentage of the time. I don’t hate a check either fwiw, I think here it can go either way and I would probably do both ingame from time to time.
Flop: LEAD, really, lead! I think he will be checking back some holdings like T6o which have great implied odds vs our hand and will check back a ton but will defenitly call a bet from time to time. Vs someone who stabs 100% (or close to it) this is an easy checkraise on flop given that it’s unlikely for him to have bottom pair since we hold two casecards so villain’s range will be draws/nuts/air and he won’t check back too much with showdown value. Vs this opponent however, I would just lead out 50 here given the drawyness of the board. As played, raisesize on flop looks a bit small since he probably has a piece of the board you can go a little bigger here (120-150). Obv snapcall shove and try to pair the board next time.
Again, you’re being a little too passive here. There’s defenitly some value in raising preflop. With these stacksizes, I wouldn’t make it too big. You can minraise (keeps in a lot of hands) or go to 3bb’s or anything in between (anything bigger will make you committed too much either pre- or postflop with these stacksizes).
Ok, now flop. Ehm, we know now that he indeed bets a flushdraw on the flop, but will probably check back his airhands. I think both checking and leading can go here. However, if you do check, it’s too checkraise! He raised a couple of times preflop, so KJ+/AK/KK+/JJ is probably not in his range. I know it’s the first time he bets pot but you’re mainly only afraid of K5/55/J5 here and if you checkraise he’ll jam his flushdraws a bunch of the time (or call with them), and will very likely stack off with any Kx hand here as well and he will have you beat only a real small percentage of the time.
I think you missed out a great double up spot here tbh, even if you check preflop, it’s not too hard to put in 22bb’s if villain pots it on the flop.
Minraising looks fine, but limping to see what he does vs limps when stacks get shallower would be fine too.
Raise-size looks fine, nh sir.
