If you can hit a 40% ROI, you should do well. There are some exceptions though. Look at the following table:
The person from the above table played super tight. Their super tight play helped them get to the bubble quite often. The only bad thing is that once they got on the bubble – they were terrified of getting knocked out of the tourney and played way too tight – got blinded away and missed their coin flips when forced to play a hand. Even if they did make it ITM, by the time they got there – they were so short on chips that they usually went out in 3rd place. Key point here is that even though they were ITM 40% of the time, they still are a net loser!
Losing Player – Too Aggressive
So what if you play super aggressive – like 20% ITM and get half of your wins in 1st place? This super aggressive style might look as follows:
The person from the above table played super aggressive. They picked the absolute wrong spots to put their money in and played almost every hand like a mad man. As you can see, sometimes it worked and the got lucky with huge stacks making easy first place finishes. Other times though – they busted out early in the tourney. Overall, they loose big. Super aggressive play rarely works since you are given so many coin flips. Against a big audience, you eventually get caught.