There’s an extra round of betting in Stud, so we’re going to talk about both fifth and sixth streets in this chapter. The next chapter deals with the river.
We’ll assume there are our customary three players still in the hand. The random fourth hand from the previous chapter will not figure into the rest of the hand. Table 10.12 lists the hands and the percentages of total money won.
The hidden pair of Aces is now in a decent amount of trouble, but assuming all players
stay in until the end, the Aces will still be putting in 1/3 of all money with the expectation of winning all but 0.1 percent of it back. Given the size of the pot going into fifth street, calling is justified. The trick here is to determine if the player has a pocket pair or a much more dangerous third King, which would make that hand a 73.5 percent winner over time. In this case they have the pocket pair (6♥6♦). Putting ourselves in the situation of playing the Aces, what do we have to hope for? It goes without saying that we would first want another Ace. The T♦ would be a great card for us in this case, as it would give us a higher two pair, Aces-up versus Kings-up. It would also give us redraws to an Ace-high flush and a full house. The second hand is drawing thin in that two or possibly three of the Kings it would need to make its straight are gone, as is one of the Eights. In this example, only two other clubs are dead, so there are still seven clubs left in the deck. Unfortunately, the clubs would need to come runner-runner. The hand with the Kings is in a good position, but as the Aces would certainly have raised by now, some alarm bells should be going off.
The important thing to note here is that even with a double draw, the drawing hand is a major underdog against two made hands. The pot must be substantial to stay in. Be certain you are getting at least 4:1 odds in a hand like this if you stay in. Other players will likely be raising with their strong hands, so you will need to decide if one or both of them is bluffing
As the old saying goes, though, every dog has his day. Let’s say sixth street brings blanks for the Aces and Kings hands but makes the straight for the second hand. The new per- centages are in Table 10.13.
The lucky so-and-so has now made the straight and is now an 8:1 favorite versus a 4:1 underdog. Approximately one-ninth of the time, a King or Six will come and make the straight a loser. Also notice that the J♣9♣ is in the pocket, which means only three of the straight cards are in view. If four straight cards were out (or four cards for any hand, for that matter), then it would not be a stretch to conclude the straight had likely been made. With three cards, though, the made straight has the advantage of being con- cealed, which means aggressive players may be willing to raise to see if it’s a bluff. It’s not, so here comes the re-raise!