POKER STARS $5/$10 NO LIMIT HOLDEM – 9 PLAYERS
The preflop call with two big suited cards is standard. Q♠J♠ plays very well in position in a multiway pot.
With four players in for a raise, the pot is already getting large when the flop comes out. Dusty picks up the second nut flush draw and calls with the intention of raising the turn unless the board pairs. Against certain players, it wouldn’t be horrible to raise to something like $260 with the plan of getting all the chips in the center. Some players will shove with smaller flush draws, giving queen-jack the chance to actually be the best hand.
The trouble here is that the under-the-gun player is likely to have a hand like ace-king or ace-queen and go all in on the flop. His large flop bet looks like he has something strong but vulnerable, and he’s scared of getting drawn out on. He’s also unlikely to have any flush draws in his range except perhaps K♠ T♠ , which would be a nightmare. With nothing more than a flush draw, it’s hard for Dusty to get the chips in with good equity on this flop.
On the turn, however, it’s easy to represent a hand like ace-ten. If the turn were a 3, 4, or 5, he could represent an unlikely wheel. Even without a great turn card (the ten is nice since it adds a gutshot to Dusty’s draw), it would be okay to jam the flush draw here since this is an opponent who sees monsters under the bed. By calling the flop and raising the turn, Dusty has allowed him to put in a big turn bet before showing him the monsters he’s so afraid of. It doesn’t matter whether or not they’re really there.
The key to this play is that it’s consistent with how a flopped monster like a set could be played. In fact, it’s so in line with what the opponent expects to see that he actually types in the chat box: “Unbelievable! Nice ace-ten. You fkkn donks always get there with your weaker ace.” He just knew Dusty had turned two pair because that’s what always happens to him. That’s what he thinks, anyway.
Not only can the turn raise generate more fold equity by essentially risking the same amount of money as the flop raise (since the plan would be to call a shove), it also earns more money the times it works. Against aggressive opponents, it’s a good idea to let them put that extra turn bet in before you convince them that they’re beaten. That’s why it’s a reasonable way to play a set (although against this opponent it might be better to raise the river), and that’s why it works with a draw.