Getting ITM 40%+

SNG’s must be thought of as follows:

“You are allowed ONLY 1 coin FLIP per Sit-n-Go you play (assuming equal pot sizes). If you are going to hit that 40% ITM or better, this has to be the case. For example, if you have 1000 chips and your opponent does too, you go all-in he calls. AK vs 22 – coin flip. If you win, you have 2000 (chances of finishing ITM are better but still not gaurunteed). If you lose YOU ARE OUT! No more tourney. You will lose 50% of the time. If you do win, and then end up in another coin flip situation against another 2000 chip stack, you again have only a 50% chance of winning. So, in general, you want to avoid these UNLESS… your stack is huge compared to theirs, or there is some extra gain to be had by winning the coin flip (increase in prizes once ITM).”

So, this means that we need another important principle to follow:

IP: AVOID COIN FLIP CONFRONTATIONS IF YOUR OPPONENT CAN KNOCK YOU OUT OF THE TOURNEY (You will lose these 50% of the time and be knocked out. If you win, you still aren’t guaranteed to finish ITM – unless you were on the bubble obviously)

You want to avoid clear coin flips and look for cases where you are fairly sure you have your opponent dominated or you have overpair to his under pair. Of course, this is the tricky part. Knowing when to do this and when to take your risks. Following our system should help put you in this position (in most cases).

There are some exceptions however. There are times when you know you have a coin flip, but because of stack sizes and blinds sizes, you will call or push all-in – even though there is a 50% chance you will be knocked out. We’ll address these as they come up.

The key point in this section however is to understand that if you have 2 coin flips, and losing any one of them means your out of the tourney, it should be obvious that you will only finish ITM about 25% of the time on average. As opposed to the 40% or better we’re shooting for. So – the moral of the story is avoid coin flips if your opponent can knock you out.

Section Summary:

Finishing 1st is equivalent to having about 4 3rd place finishes. Too tight will not help you get the big 1st place finishes you need Too aggressive will not help you get ITM enough
Play just right. Fairly tight with selective aggression
Avoid coin flips if you will be knocked out or incapacitated if you lose (happens half the time)
Remember basic odds.

Remember you are normaly not that bad off! With any two cards. Exception is having an underpair to an overpair (22 vs 33). In this case, you really are bad off 20% chance of winning.

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