Creating a likely hand range for your opponent start with really paying attention to what they are doing, and gaining insights into how they are thinking about situations, or in some cases, not thinking. Opponents that will continuation bet out of position on draw heavy boards with over cards are one of those players you want to note. Better opponents will tend to slow down in these situations. If you see even one showdown hand where an opponent continuation bet on a really “wet board” with over cards, or even worse, no over cards, then take note and get ready to float.
These are opponents when you’re in position that you’ll want to float and represent some of the draws that do come in. You should continue in a lot more spots against these opponents, especially when you have position. When they have position, look to call down a little lighter, or check-raise when you have decent improvement equity in your hand.
In the above example, when facing a noted CBB who has open raised UTG and now continuation bet, calling with an under pair and gutshot is reasonable. Against most opponents though, you’d typically want to dump this hand since they shouldn’t be betting this board unless they have a good hand or really good draw.
Not only can your hand be best, but being in position you also have some option to turn your hand into a bluff if say the Ah or Kh comes on the turn and your opponent continues to bet. Taking careful note and finding opponent who will bet unimproved on draw heavy or “wet boards” is a helpful note to have to maximize every hand’s expected value.
